Kilian Kamkar

Kilian Kamkar

Hi, welcome to my website!

I am a PhD Candidate in Economics at the University of Cambridge, supervised by Tiago Cavalcanti and Christopher Rauh. During my PhD, I visited FGV São Paulo and the Banco Central do Brasil, where I work with confidential microdata.

My primary research interests are macro-development, environmental economics, and growth.

Previously, I was a Consultant at the World Bank's Development Research Group (Macroeconomics & Growth). I obtained an MPhil in Economics from the University of Oxford and an MSc in Economics from Royal Holloway, University of London. I also hold a BSc in Economics from Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin.

I am on the 2026/27 economics job market.

Here is my CV. Email: kk745@cam.ac.uk

Job Market Paper

Deforestation without Development? Trade, Land Use, and Technology Investments
with Fernando Chertman

Draft coming soon.

Abstract

We study how foreign demand for agricultural exports shapes technology adoption within the agricultural sector. Whereas modernization requires costly investment in capital and technology that primarily benefits crop cultivation, farmers may raise output instead by clearing forests to expand pasture. We study this choice during the commodity boom in Brazil, combining confidential records on the near universe of cross-bank electronic transfers with satellite imagery to observe land use and input purchases at the farm level. Using a shift-share shock, we find that foreign demand for agricultural exports causes farmers in the Amazon to reallocate land from capital-intensive soybean toward land-intensive pasture, reducing their purchases of machinery and technology as pasture replaces forest. We show that this response emerges optimally from the asymmetric use of land and technology across agricultural activities, since abundant land can cause farmers to specialize in pasture, reducing the area under crop cultivation needed to justify technology investments. We then embed this mechanism into a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous farmers, endogenous technology adoption, and credit frictions that hold adoption below its efficient level and show that a perfectly enforced no-deforestation tax of around US$700 per hectare can raise the welfare gains from trade by more than 75 percent.

Working Papers

Differential Land Efficiency and the Environmental Consequences of Agricultural Productivity Growth
with Tiago Cavalcanti

Revise & Resubmit, Journal of Development Economics

[PDF] [CEPR Discussion Paper] [STEG Working Paper]

Abstract

Does improving agricultural productivity spare forests or accelerate their demise? We offer a new perspective on this debate by emphasizing the relative agricultural suitability of forest versus available vacant land for conversion. We develop a parsimonious framework in which land differs in agricultural efficiency across alternative expansion margins, showing that productivity gains translate into deforestation only when forests constitute the most cost-effective source of additional effective land. We test this prediction using a quasi-experimental design based on Tanzania's National Agricultural Input Voucher Scheme (NAIVS), which promoted modern seed and fertilizer adoption. Combining high-resolution satellite data on forest loss with spatial data on soil nitrogen to proxy relative suitability, we find that the program increased deforestation only in villages where vacant land was substantially less productive than forest land. Our results highlight the central role of land quality heterogeneity in shaping the environmental consequences of agricultural productivity growth, offer a complementary explanation for land-sparing versus expansionary outcomes, and point to a role for directed agricultural innovation in mitigating deforestation without constraining productivity growth.

Could Credit Save the Amazon Forest?
with Rafael Araujo, Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata & Fernando Chertman

Draft coming soon.

Hegemon, What Hegemon? The Elusive Spillovers of British and American Monetary Policies until WWII
with Paul Bouscasse, James Cloyne & Jason Lennard

Draft coming soon.

Firm Expansion, Supply Chains, and Regional Integration
with Mathis Y. Momm & Fernando Chertman

Draft coming soon.

Policy Work

Structural Transformation, Climate and Growth: an Agricultural Extension of the Long Term Growth Model (LTGM-AG)
with Steven Pennings & Arthur Mendes

Draft coming soon.

Subnational Cash Transfers in Developing Countries: A New Cross-Country Dataset
with Steven Pennings, Patricio Diaz, Yiruo Li & Arthur Mendes

Draft coming soon.